The studio hopes to gross over $700 million worldwide for a potential sequel to the upcoming film
Category: Arts & Culture
As the release of the much-anticipated biopic Michael approaches, Lionsgate is banking on the film to gross at least $700 million worldwide. This ambitious target comes as the movie, which chronicles the life of pop icon Michael Jackson, is set to debut in U.S. theaters on April 24, 2026. The film has already generated considerable buzz, having received positive reviews following its premiere at the Berlin Film Festival earlier this month.
The stakes are high for Lionsgate, especially as the film's success could pave the way for sequels. According to a report by Variety, any plans for a follow-up will depend entirely on the financial performance of the initial release. The studio hopes that Michael will capture the audience's attention and break box office records, potentially becoming the highest-grossing musical biopic in history.
Directed by Antoine Fuqua and featuring Jaafar Jackson, Michael's nephew, in the titular role, the film aims to depict Jackson's evolution from a child star to a global sensation. It will explore his artistic genius, fame, and personal struggles throughout his career. Early tracking estimates suggest the film could earn between $65 million and $80 million during its opening weekend, a figure that would surpass the launch of the acclaimed biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, which opened with $51 million in the U.S.
The path to the screen for Michael has been anything but straightforward. Originally, the film's cut ran over three and a half hours, necessitating extensive edits to meet studio requirements. Legal constraints, particularly a settlement that barred the depiction of certain events involving Jordan Chandler, led to substantial changes in the film's narrative structure. This reshaping of the story resulted in about 30% of the original footage being left unused, which Lionsgate and Universal are now considering for future projects.
Producers are optimistic that the film's narrative will resonate with audiences, especially considering Jackson's enduring popularity. The film's promotional materials have already sparked interest, with a teaser trailer going viral in November 2025, amassing over 30 million views shortly after its release. This initial excitement has raised hopes that the film could replicate or even exceed the success of Bohemian Rhapsody, which grossed nearly $910 million globally.
Challenges remain, though, as recent projections have tempered expectations. Estimates for the domestic opening have dropped from earlier forecasts of $80 million to a more conservative range of $60 million to $75 million. Industry analysts have noted that, even with strong presales, Michael is not performing as well as competing films like Wicked and The Devil Wears Prada 2, which is set to release just a week later.
With the release date approaching, Lionsgate is closely monitoring audience reactions and box office performance. For the film to be considered a financial success, it must earn approximately 2.5 times its production budget of $155 million, plus an additional $10 million to $15 million allocated for reshoots. This means Michael will need to gross around $400 million to break even.
As the film gears up for its release, Lionsgate's hopes hinge on its ability to attract a wide audience. If it meets or exceeds the projected opening weekend earnings, the studio may find itself in a favorable position to greenlight a sequel. The potential follow-up would likely focus on Jackson's later years, exploring the albums Dangerous and Invincible, along with his personal life and the construction of Neverland Ranch.
The competitive film market poses a challenge, especially with major releases scheduled around the same time. If Michael can maintain strong performance in its second week, it may bolster its chances of achieving the ambitious $700 million target. As audiences await the film's release, its opening weekend figures to determine whether the King of Pop's cinematic legacy will shine as brightly as his musical one.
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