As tensions rise, Iran's Houthi allies could disrupt key maritime chokepoints affecting global energy supplies
Category: Politics
On July 14, 2026, Iran indicated that it might leverage Yemen's Houthi allies to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic gateway to the Red Sea, thereby opening a new front against Washington and threatening two of the world's most important energy arteries. This warning comes as U.S. military strikes intensify in Iran, with analysts observing a widening of the conflict that could impact global trade and energy supplies beyond the Gulf, as reported by Reuters.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a key route for Saudi oil exports and a substantial portion of global shipping. The potential closure of this strait could lead to dramatic increases in oil prices, with a senior Yemeni official warning that prices could soar to $200 a barrel if Saudi attacks on Yemen continue. Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the political bureau of the Houthi movement, stated, "If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock."
Analysts view Bab el-Mandeb as Iran's last major strategic reserve after the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has already successfully disrupted. Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East scholar, noted that Tehran is showing Washington its capability to threaten both chokepoints simultaneously, transforming the conflict from a bilateral confrontation into a broader challenge to global energy trade routes. He remarked, "Now (Tehran) is escalated both near and wide. The message is that not only Hormuz, but Bab al-Mandab, is at risk." This escalation has raised concerns about a potential "mission creep," where each side raises the stakes without entering direct confrontation, thereby increasing pressure on both nations to return to negotiations.
The current situation is rooted in a series of conflicts that have destabilized the region, particularly the war in Yemen, which has seen the Houthis, backed by Iran, engage in attacks on commercial shipping. Following the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, the Houthis targeted vessels in the Red Sea, claiming they were linked to Israel. This campaign forced shipping companies to reroute their vessels around southern Africa, significantly raising transport costs and prompting military responses from the U.S. and British forces.
Yemen’s Information Minister, Moammar Al-Eryani, emphasized the implications of Iran's actions, stating that the recent Middle East war showcased how maritime chokepoints can be weaponized. He explained that Iran has disrupted navigation and energy flows through Hormuz, utilizing mines, drones, missiles, and explosive boats, demonstrating its capacity to leverage geography for strategic advantage. Al-Eryani warned that if Iran could threaten both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, it could create a global economic chokehold.
As tensions escalate, the legitimate Yemeni government maintains control over Bab el-Mandeb and much of the Red Sea coastline, which has helped prevent the Houthis from fully executing Iran's threats. Nevertheless, analysts caution that temporary naval coalitions may mitigate the immediate threat but are unlikely to resolve the fundamental issue of the armed Houthi movement, which operates outside state control and is supplied and guided by Tehran.
Looking ahead, the potential for increased Houthi attacks on commercial shipping could prompt a more extensive military response from the U.S. and its partners, aimed at degrading the Houthis' capabilities. Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, noted that Gulf states increasingly perceive diplomacy with Iran as having reached its limits. He stated, "Both a victorious Iran and a defeated Iran carry consequences for the region," indicating that many Gulf states may find the costs of a defeated Iran acceptable if it leads to a more stable regional security environment.
The growing threat to trade and energy supplies may compel Washington and Tehran to reconsider their positions and return to negotiations before the situation escalates into a full-blown conflict over the world's two most important oil chokepoints. Dennis Ross, a former U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, articulated the challenge for Washington: "The issue is, how do you change the Iranian calculus to the point where they’re ready, again, to talk, but not just to talk, but actually to work out an arrangement that is ... acceptable?"
The international community is closely monitoring developments as the situation evolves, with the potential for both economic and geopolitical ramifications. The stakes are high, and the world is watching closely to see how Iran's strategic maneuvers will impact global energy markets and international relations.