The islands brace for potential hurricane swells as trade winds persist this weekend
Category: Climate & Environment
Hawaii is set to experience a weekend marked by persistent trade winds and the potential for hurricane swells, according to forecasts from local meteorologists. The National Weather Service has indicated that trade winds will remain steady through the weekend before beginning to ease early next week.
This weather pattern is particularly important as it coincides with increased activity in the Eastern Pacific, raising concerns about potential impacts from tropical systems. "We are keeping an eye on the tropics, especially with a hurricane swell possibly reaching the islands," said Jennifer Robbins, a local weather forecaster.
As the weekend approaches, residents and visitors can expect beautiful weather conditions, with a mix of sun and clouds. The forecast for July 17, 2026, predicts highs ranging from 80 to 86 degrees Fahrenheit near the shore, with cooler temperatures at higher elevations. In addition, scattered showers are expected, particularly in the morning hours.
In Hilo, the weather tonight is anticipated to be mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the evening, transitioning to numerous showers after midnight. Low temperatures are expected to range from 66 to 73 degrees near the shore, dropping to around 60 degrees at elevations of 4,000 feet. The chance of rain is projected at 70 percent, with northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.
On Sunday, Hilo will see partly sunny conditions, with scattered showers in the morning giving way to isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs are expected to be between 80 and 86 degrees near the shore, with temperatures at 4,000 feet ranging from 66 to 71 degrees. The chance of rain drops to 50 percent as the day progresses.
In the Kona region, tonight's forecast includes mostly cloudy skies and isolated showers in the evening, with lows ranging from 68 to 75 degrees near the shore. Sunday will bring partly sunny weather with isolated afternoon showers, and highs are expected to reach between 85 and 90 degrees. The chance of rain remains low at 20 percent.
Waimea is also preparing for a breezy night with mostly cloudy conditions and scattered showers. Low temperatures will be between 66 and 73 degrees near the shore, with highs on Sunday around 82 degrees. The chance of rain is 50 percent, indicating a possibility of showers throughout the weekend.
As the trade winds continue, forecasters are closely monitoring potential tropical disturbances developing in the Eastern Pacific. Reports indicate that a hurricane swell may soon approach the islands, alongside a typhoon swell that has already made its way from the western Pacific.
"There’s a developing tropical disturbance several hundred miles southwest of Ixtapa, Mexico, that could bring us tropical trouble in about a week and a half," Robbins noted. She emphasized the importance of staying prepared, as the situation is still developing and could change rapidly.
The trade winds are expected to remain breezy through Sunday, with sustained winds averaging between 10 and 20 mph. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for typically windy areas around Maui and the Big Island until 6 PM on Sunday.
Looking ahead, the weather forecast indicates a trend toward drier conditions as drier air pushes in with the trades. This shift is expected to lead to fewer windward and mauka showers, resulting in more sunshine for the islands. The National Weather Service projects that the relatively dry trade winds will persist through late next week.
By Monday, the trade winds will begin to ease slightly, but are expected to strengthen again midweek as high pressure builds north of the islands. This pattern suggests that the breezy conditions will return, maintaining the typical weather patterns that residents and visitors have come to expect.
Surf conditions are also forecasted to change, with a larger south swell expected to build late Sunday and peak close to advisory levels by early next week. This swell is anticipated to fade during the middle of the week, but another long-period south swell is set to arrive on Thursday, keeping surf elevated through the weekend.
As the islands prepare for the upcoming weather changes, officials remind residents and visitors to stay informed and be prepared for possible impacts from the ocean swells and any tropical systems that may develop.
In the meantime, the trade winds will continue to provide a refreshing breeze across the islands, creating ideal conditions for outdoor activities. As always, staying updated on the latest forecasts is key to enjoying Hawaii's beautiful weather safely.
With the weekend upon us, those planning to enjoy the beaches should remain vigilant about changing surf conditions and heed any advisories issued by local authorities.