The warming phenomenon is expected to amplify climate change effects, raising global temperatures and triggering extreme weather events.
Category: Climate & Environment
The El Niño phenomenon is making a comeback, with predictions indicating a strong likelihood of its emergence later this year, raising concerns about its potential impact on global weather patterns. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an estimated 80% chance that El Niño will develop by autumn 2026, following a period dominated by La Niña conditions.
El Niño, characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures across the tropical eastern and central Pacific Ocean, typically alters weather patterns worldwide, affecting temperatures and precipitation. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service noted on March 19, 2026, that the Pacific Ocean currently holds a substantial reservoir of warm water beneath its surface, which supports predictions for the phenomenon's development.
“If you want to make a really strong El Niño, this is the way to start,” said Oregon State Climatologist Larry O’Neill, highlighting the significance of the warm water accumulation. The forecast indicates that El Niño could lead to above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation across the Northwest, particularly affecting regions like Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Northern California.
Specifically, the National Weather Service predicts a drier and warmer than average spring and early summer, with the potential for these conditions to persist through the end of the year. With an 82% chance that El Niño will still be active during the winter months, the region could see a shift from the current weak La Niña conditions, which have resulted this winter's snowpack being only 61% of average for Washington and a mere 24% for Oregon.
El Niño's influence extends beyond the Pacific Northwest. It is known to amplify climate change effects, which raises global average temperatures and increases the frequency of extreme weather events. The previous El Niño episode, which occurred between 2023 and 2024, was the fifth strongest on record, contributing to global temperatures reaching 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels.
“2026 could surpass previous records if a strong El Niño develops,” warned Professor Dr. Fredolin Tajudin Tangang from the Academy of Sciences Malaysia. He noted that forecasts suggest a greater than 70% probability of a strong El Niño forming by mid-2026, with risks increasing to between 80% and 90% by the end of the year.
The anticipated El Niño could exacerbate already elevated temperatures, particularly across Southeast Asia, where Malaysia is currently transitioning out of the Northeast Monsoon season. The inter-monsoon phase, expected to begin next month, typically brings unstable weather patterns, potentially leading to thunderstorms and flash floods.
Meanwhile, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently contributing to hotter conditions, particularly for northern Peninsular Malaysia, by suppressing convection and increasing solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. This situation could lead to heatwaves, raising concerns for public health during festive seasons when outdoor activities are common.
“The hot weather we are experiencing now does not merely cause discomfort,” said Dr. Mohd Dzulkhairi Mohd Rani, a Public Health Specialist at Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia. “It can also lead to more serious health risks, including heatstroke, which can be life-threatening.”
El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, are part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern that occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine months to a year. The current La Niña phase, which has been associated with cooler and wetter conditions, is expected to transition into neutral conditions before El Niño potentially strengthens.
During El Niño, the warmer waters push the Pacific jet stream's strong air currents south and east, resulting typically wetter weather across the southern United States and drier conditions across tropical regions like Southeast Asia and Australia. Conversely, La Niña often brings wetter conditions to parts of Australia and Indonesia, with drier weather to the southern United States.
Both El Niño and La Niña have far-reaching effects on global weather patterns, influencing everything from agricultural yields to hurricane activity. For example, the extreme weather events triggered by the 2015-16 El Niño affected the food security of over 60 million people globally, according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization.
With climate change intensifying, experts stress the importance of preparedness for the extreme weather that El Niño may bring. “We need to act quickly and effectively to reduce the impact of extreme heat on public health,” Dr. Mohd Dzulkhairi emphasized, noting that symptoms of heatstroke can escalate rapidly and require immediate medical attention.
El Niño's potential return is a reminder of the interconnectedness of global weather systems and the importance of monitoring these natural phenomena. The observed trends indicate that the impacts of El Niño could be more severe with the backdrop of climate change, making it imperative for communities worldwide to adapt and prepare for the challenges that lie ahead.
“With climate change, there are no guarantees that what happened before will happen again,” O’Neill cautioned, underscoring the unpredictability of weather patterns. The coming months will be closely watched by scientists and policymakers alike, hoping to mitigate the effects of this powerful climate phenomenon.